Archive

October 2026 · Risk score 7/10

The U.S.-China technology confrontation enters October 2026 with a temporary diplomatic détente masking structural instability: the Busan tariff truce expires November 10, Beijing retains near-monopoly control of rare earth processing, and chip export controls remain binding even as the two governments pursue surface-level accommodation.

September 2026 · Risk score 8/10

Fractured monetary policy signals heading into the September 15-16 FOMC decision, combined with EU AI Act transparency enforcement activated August 2, create a simultaneous compliance-and-capital-cost squeeze for technology companies with no near-term relief path visible.

August 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The EU AI Act's August 2, 2026 general applicability date, a $700 billion AI-driven data center buildout pressuring the Fed toward rate hikes, and an unresolved US-China semiconductor bifurcation combine to make August the highest-pressure regulatory and macroeconomic month for tech in the current cycle.

July 2026 · Risk score 7/10

The US semiconductor export-control regime is fracturing under simultaneous executive loosening and congressional hawkish pressure, while $700B+ in hyperscaler AI capex commitments widen the gap between infrastructure spend and demonstrated revenue return, a combination that elevates both policy and valuation risk heading into July.