Sample Output
Scenario Builder: Sample Output
This sample reproduces a Fortius Scenario Bundle, the branch analysis delivered on the Command plan, rendered through the same component the live product uses. One triggering event is developed into three parallel branches over the same evidence base, then synthesised into probability bands, divergence triggers, and a decision table. Each branch is a complete Intelligence Brief. The client's identity is rewritten here for a representative profile: an EU-headquartered LNG shipping operator.
Fortius Intel Scenario Builder
Scenario Report for EU-headquartered LNG shipping operator, Energy as on 09:00 (GMT), 1 Jul 2026
Illustrative sample
- Name
- EU-headquartered LNG shipping operator
- Sector
- Energy
- Format
- 3 branches + synthesis
- Category
- Chokepoint Disruption Risk
3
Branches
4
Divergence triggers
3
Decisions
Triggering Event
The IRGC Navy announces a three-day closure drill across the Strait of Hormuz approaches, 21 to 23 July 2026.
Where these risks land
CriticalHigh
3 locations named in this report
Base 55-70%Downside 20-30%Tail Risk 5-10%
How to Read the Branches
The drill is most likely theatre with an insurance bill attached: the base branch resolves in weeks and its cost is bounded. The cheap hedges are administrative and available now: move one loading slot and buy war-risk quotes before the corridor reprices. The expensive mistakes live in the tail, where the signal to act is cover being withdrawn, not headlines. Watch the insurance market, not the exercise.
Divergence Triggers
›A NAVTEX warning extending the exercise box or its dates beyond 23 July. (confirms Downside, During the drill window)
›IRGC fast-attack craft dispersing to forward bases instead of returning to Bandar Abbas. (confirms Tail Risk, During the drill window)
›An insurer withdrawing Hormuz cover outright rather than repricing it. (confirms Tail Risk, Next 45 days)
›The exercise concluding on schedule with no boarding incident. (confirms Base, By 24 July)
Decision Table
Swap the 24 July Ras Laffan slot to a non-Hormuz cargo.
Act now if Binding war-risk quotes exceed 0.7% of hull value.
Defer if The NAVTEX stays limited to the announced exercise box.
Lock Q4 fixtures with explicit closure and deviation clauses.
Act now if Two or more insurers withdraw Hormuz cover.
Defer if Premiums decay to pre-drill levels by mid-August.
Stand up a Cape of Good Hope routing plan with bunkering contracts.
Act now if Any boarding incident occurs during the exercise.
Defer if The drill ends on schedule with no interdiction.
Base Branch55-70%
MEDIUMChokepoint Disruption RiskHIGH Confidence
The drill executes as announced and ends without interdiction.
Where these risks land
Medium
1 location named in this report
Situation
The IRGC completes its announced 21 to 23 July exercise on schedule. Fast-attack craft return to Bandar Abbas in Iran, AIS gaps inside the exercise box close, and no vessel is boarded or stopped.
Sector Implication
War-risk premiums on Hormuz transits spike for 10 to 15 days, then decay as the exercise closes on schedule. No cargo is delayed and the corridor stays open throughout.
Company Implication
Both committed Q3 transits sail on their original laycans at an elevated premium. Cost impact is bounded and insurable; no rerouting is required.
Recommended Actions
1.Treasury: Buy war-risk cover for both transits at the pre-spike quote rather than waiting out the drill.
2.Chartering Lead: Hold the existing laycans; do not pay to reschedule cargo that will sail on time.
Consequence Chain
30-Day
Premiums spike then decay within 10 to 15 days. Both cargoes sail on their original laycans.
90-Day
The corridor normalises and Q4 fixtures price without a closure premium.
180-Day
2027 corridor contracting reprices only marginally, treating the drill as routine signalling.
Watch Indicators
›IRGC fast-attack craft returning to Bandar Abbas before 23 July.
›AIS coverage inside the exercise box restored with no boarding incident.
Confidence Rationale
HIGH. Announced dates and scope are corroborated, and the base case matches every prior IRGC Hormuz drill that ended without interdiction.
Sources
Generated 1 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC
Downside Branch20-30%
HIGHChokepoint Disruption RiskMEDIUM Confidence
The exercise extends and IRGC forces board tankers linked to sanctioned trades.
Where these risks land
High
1 location named in this report
Situation
The IRGC extends the exercise beyond 23 July and conducts selective boardings of tankers it links to sanctioned trades, without closing the strait.
Sector Implication
Selective boardings produce corridor delays of one to three weeks. Premiums step-change rather than decay, and charterers begin invoking deviation clauses across Q3 fixtures.
Company Implication
The 24 July Ras Laffan slot in Qatar likely misses its laycan. A Cape of Good Hope deviation adds roughly 14 days and an estimated $2.1M in fuel, hire, and premium.
Recommended Actions
1.Operations: Activate the Cape of Good Hope routing and bunkering plan for the 24 July slot.
2.Legal: Serve notice on the charterer that deviation rights are being exercised under the corridor agreement.
Consequence Chain
30-Day
Corridor delays of one to three weeks; the 24 July slot deviates. Premiums step-change rather than decay.
90-Day
Deviation-rights disputes spread across Q4 fixtures; two or more arbitration filings cite the exercise.
180-Day
Corridor agreements reprice with explicit deviation and closure language for 2027.
Watch Indicators
›A NAVTEX warning extending the exercise box or its dates.
›A single confirmed boarding of a commercial tanker in the corridor.
Confidence Rationale
MEDIUM. Boarding precedent exists (April 2024), but extension beyond the announced window is not indicated by current signals.
Sources
Generated 1 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC
Tail Risk Branch5-10%
CRITICALChokepoint Disruption RiskLOW Confidence
Mining or an actual closure attempt draws a naval response and shuts the strait for weeks.
Where these risks land
Critical
2 locations named in this report
Situation
An attempted closure, mining, or a miscalculated engagement draws a naval response and shuts the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman to commercial traffic for weeks.
Sector Implication
Force-majeure declarations spread across Q3 fixtures. Hormuz cover is withdrawn rather than repriced, and spot LNG moves double digits.
Company Implication
Both Q3 cargoes go to force majeure. The material exposure is structural: 2027 corridor contracting reprices around explicit closure clauses.
Recommended Actions
1.Treasury: Declare force majeure on both Hormuz cargoes and quantify the uninsured exposure immediately.
2.Chartering Lead: Secure non-Hormuz replacement cargo for Q3 delivery obligations.
Consequence Chain
30-Day
The strait closes; both cargoes go to force majeure and Hormuz cover is withdrawn.
90-Day
Spot LNG moves double digits; replacement cargo is contracted at a premium.
180-Day
2027 corridor contracting reprices around explicit closure clauses, shifting risk from insurers to shippers.
Watch Indicators
›An insurer withdrawing Hormuz cover outright rather than repricing it.
›Any mining report or naval engagement in the strait.
Confidence Rationale
LOW. No current indicator points to closure; the branch rests on tail precedent and the structural consequence if it occurs.
Sources
Generated 1 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC
The Scenario Builder is a Command plan capability. Each branch ships as a complete Intelligence Brief alongside the synthesis above.
Scenario Bundles are built on the same grounded evidence base as every Fortius output, so the difference between branches is analytical, not informational. The free Threat Register gives you the scan-level view first: three scans, no card required.