Archive

October 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The October 27-28 FOMC meeting arrives with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.29%, a 19-year high, and market pricing assigning a 64% probability to a second consecutive hike. Iran-war-driven energy inflation locks the Fed into a tighter-for-longer posture that threatens credit quality across all finance sub-sectors.

September 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The September 16 FOMC decision, the first with Chair Kevin Warsh's updated dot plot, arrives while headline CPI sits at 3.5%, three regional Fed presidents have already voted to hike, and the 2026 Iran war continues to inject stagflationary pressure into credit and insurance markets globally.

August 2026 · Risk score 8/10

A divided Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 while three dissenters pressed for a hike, leaving the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the first with a dot-plot release under Chair Warsh, as the most consequential single event for finance-sector pricing in months. The Middle East conflict continues to suppress Hormuz shipping insurance capacity and embed energy-driven inflation that directly challenges the hold posture.

July 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The finance sector enters July 2026 under simultaneous pressure from a Fed signaling its first rate hike since 2023, a hard statutory deadline for GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, unresolved Basel III capital re-proposal comment absorption, and FSB-flagged private credit fragility, four compounding vectors with no near-term relief valve.