Archive

October 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marks a transition point, but cumulative inventory drawdowns of 400 million barrels, structurally thin OPEC+ spare capacity, and the now-active OBBBA solar/wind credit cliff create compounding stress across all energy sub-sectors entering the winter demand season.

September 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, now in its seventh month, continues to drive Brent above $91/bbl and suppress physical Gulf supply well below pre-war levels, while the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's termination of wind and solar tax credits sharpens a structural fault line in U.S. clean energy investment.

August 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single controlling variable for global energy markets: Iran and the U.S. traded contradictory signals on August 3-4 over whether direct negotiations are underway, keeping oil prices and supply-route risk in active flux even as OPEC+ confirmed a second consecutive 188,000 b/d output hike for September.

July 2026 · Risk score 8/10

The June 17 US-Iran MOU establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension has nominally re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's June 20 re-declared closure and ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon mean physical transit recovery entering July remains fragile and contested, keeping Brent near $105/b and global inventory draws acute.